Private prison operator CoreCivic poised for record growth under Trump — Noble

Noble Capital Markets has put out a new report on CoreCivic, a small-cap private operator of prisons and detention facilities, with a $25.00 per share target price, 30% above current quotes. With the Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress now in charge of U.S. immigration policy, the company is expected to see possibly the most “significant growth opportunities” in its history.

Noble Capital Markets values CoreCivic at a target price of $25.00 per share, 30% above the closing price yesterday, February 12.

Noble believes that the Trump administration and the new Congress will create “significant growth opportunities” for CoreCivic’s services, with the company well positioned financially to take advantage of this. Moreover, the investment bank sees CoreCivic poised for what could be the “most significant growth in its history” over the next several years.

Founded in 1983 as Corrections Corporation of America, CoreCivic operates private prisons, detention centers, and housing for formerly incarcerated people to help them to acquire skills and reintegrate into society, among other things. 

CoreCivic partners with the U.S. Marshals Service and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), according to the official website. The latter is the company’s largest government client, Zacks Small-Cap Research (Zacks SCR) points out, noting that the recently passed Laken Riley Act requires the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain immigrants who have been charged, arrested, or convicted of certain crimes. As a result, the U.S. may need an additional 60,000 to 110,000 detention beds, according to CoreCivic data cited by Zacks SCR.

Yesterday, Zacks SCR also set a new target price of $25.00 per share for CoreCivic. This came after the company’s 2024 financial results and 2025 guidance. Last year, CoreCivic’s top line grew 3% to $1.96 billion, while the bottom line rose about 2% to $68.9 million. For the full-year 2025, the company guides for net income in a range of $53.5-$67.5 million but has not provided revenue guidance.

CoreCivic notes that its guidance generally does not include the impact of yet-to-be-signed contracts, but the company nevertheless expects to secure new deals.

“As the new administration modifies immigration policy and enacts new legislation, we expect the demand for our services to grow. On day one, the Trump administration reversed an executive order… that placed restrictions on contracts with privately operated criminal detention facilities… and directed the secretary of homeland security to acquire all available detention beds usable for the detention of deportable migrants. At the same time, many state and local governments are also in need of our solutions,” CoreCivic CEO Damon T. Hininger was quoted as saying in the press release.

In light of these factors, Zacks SCR believes actual figures are likely to beat the guidance.

According to Noble, CoreCivic has put forward a proposal to ICE for 28,000 beds, which, if accepted, could generate an additional $1.5 billion of revenue. If ICE agrees to use about 15,000 beds from existing idle facilities, the company could gain an additional $750-800 million of revenue and around $200-275 million of adjusted EBITDA. For context, CoreCivic’s adjusted EBITDA stood at $330.8 million last year.

Over the last 12 months, CoreCivic stock is up almost 31%. Most of that growth came after Trump’s election in November. On election day, November 6, the stock soared almost 62%. Since then, it has given back some of the gains, but the stock is still trading 40% above its price on November 5.

According to Benzinga.com, among the four analysts covering CoreCivic, there are three “buy” ratings and one “hold.” Their average target price is $22.75 per share, implying upside of almost 19%.